2018/09/30: growth is slow, but ruin is rapid.
The basic ideas in the behavior of complex systems are always the same, especially when dealing with collapses: complex systems are complex because they are dominated by the mechanism we call "feedback." Because of feedback effects, a large structure may collapse when just one of the elements that compose them fails. That may lead to the failure of the elements that surround it. These, in turn, cause the failure of other elements of the system, and so it goes. The result is what we call an "avalanche" and, as Seneca said, "ruin is rapid".
Modeling s not a question of predicting the future, it is a question of understanding it.
I am writing another book that should be called "The Seneca Strategy" -- it should be published by Springer in 2019. This second book is more a "collapse manual" that can be used to manage collapses: that is, it explains how to avoid being destroyed by collapses, how to minimize damage, and even how to profit from collapses (hint: have your enemies collapse first!). What I said in my first book remains valid: collapse is not a bug, it is a feature of the universe!
2018/06/27: We are witnessing a massive transition in Value Creation from the means of production to the means of Market Production and Curation.
Take for example Uber – here the taxi driver is a bare transitionary commodity and interchangeable. The real value creation instrument is Uber which creates, curates the market – this process now extends from Retail – Amazon – to Manufacturing, AliBaba. This reality signals a great transfer of value creation from the relatively distributed means of production to the massively globally centralised & privatised means of market making & marker curation. The implications of this are massive for inequality and scaling of precarious citizenship.
what is being disrupted is not the plumber or craftsmen but the middle classes – the management, administrative and intermediary skills.
Our Governance model is broken, we live in a ‘systemocracy’ – a world of massive inter-dependency yet we are holding on to 19th century versions of governance. This creates the illusion of sovereignty & supremacy – acting as a denial of the complexity we must confront.
Cut through the tantalizing visions of cars with wallets trading with each other, and you'll find debates taking shape over nitty-gritty details.
The publication by the RSA of this carefully researched and argued case for a Basic Income in the UK is an important moment in a growing debate. The RSA is an independent and respected organisation
The story we have been telling ourselves about our origins is wrong, and perpetuates the idea of inevitable social inequality. David Graeber and David Wengrow
We are in urgent need for regulatory innovation. The affirmation of this sentiment is increasingly visible globally in the evolving discourse along with world wide adoption of emerging tools such as
We've become fundamentally confused about what the decisions are, and what their consequences are.
A groundbreaking study in Elsevier's Ecological Economics journal by two French economists, for the first time proves the world has passed a point-of-no-return in its capacity to extract fossil fuel
The Peak Oil story got some things right. Back in 1998, Colin Campbell and Jean Laherrère wrote an article published in Scientific American called, "The End of Cheap Oil." In it they said: Our analysis of the discovery and production of oil fields around the world suggests that within the next decade, the supply of conventional oil
Economic growth never seems to be as high as those making forecasts would like it to be. This is a record of recent forecasts by the International Monetary Fund: Figure 2 shows world economic growth on a different basis--a basis that appears to me to be very close to total world GDP, as measured in
The promised returns from globalization just aren't there: poor countries don't have as much to spend, corrupt governments undermine foreign multinationals, domestic rivals hack trade secrets out of multinationals foreign offices and doing business all over the world is complicated and expensive. Even giants like GM, the biggest bettors on globalization, aren't getting the returns
The internationalized world of the Bronze Age came to a catastrophic end. We are not immune to a similar systems collapse
Druid perspectives on nature, culture, and the future of industrial society
Dean Baker: Dodging taxes and regulation isn't just disruptive - it's bad for the economy
Of about 30 detailed indicators I developed for tracing these historical cycles (reflecting popular well-being, inequality, social cooperation and its inverse, polarization and conflict), almost all have been moving in the wrong direction in the last three decades. Excerpted from Peter Turchin: "How does growing economic inequality lead to political instability? Partly this correlation reflects... Continue reading ...
The current unemployment rate of 7.5 percent means close to 20 million Americans remain unemployed or underemployed. Nobody states the obvious truth: t...
Towards a strategic relationship between the P2P Foundation and Las Indias Regular readers of our blog will have noticed that I have paid substantial attention to my discovery of the Spanish-language network developed by lasindias.net, which I hadn't previously encountered. Las Indias, is a cooperative, a neomedieval 'neo-Venetian' guild structure that was rooted in cyberpunk... Continue reading ...
Do you have a job? Do you like having a job? Then I have some bad news for you. The Guardian is worried "today's technologies are going to remove people from economic activity completely." Techonomy says "America's real worker crisis is not immigration, it is jobs." Om Malik asks: "People talk abou