2019/06/02: Global demand for cars will decline 3% in 2019, analysts predict.
There have been at least 38,000 job losses among automakers in the past six months.
One stark example: Commercial vehicle exports from the UK collapsed by 89% in April.
The decline in car sales has already wiped 0.2% off global gross domestic product, according to Fitch Ratings.
The world may have already passed "peak car."
At bank after bank, analysts are coming round to the idea that the world may have passed "peak car" and that in the future people will need fewer personal vehicles.
Certainly, they are telling clients, diesel vehicles will collapse into a niche as their polluting exhausts are regulated out of existence. Petrol/gasoline vehicles will be next, as governments in Europe and the United States set dates for manufacturers to switch their models to electric.
But that's not all. As on-demand services like Uber and Lyft grow their customer bases, more people will decide they no longer need to own a car of their own. Why would you, when it's cheaper to ride around in someone else's?
2019-03-19: The oil industry needn’t be too concerned -- for now -- about how Tesla Inc.’s electric cars are denting demand. China and its bus fleet could be more of a worry.
By the end of this year, a cumulative 270,000 barrels a day of diesel demand will have been displaced by electric buses, most of it in China, according to a report published Tuesday by BloombergNEF. That’s more than three times the displacement by all the world’s passenger electric vehicles (a market where Tesla has a share of about 12 percent.).
2019/01/21: The physical and psychological toll of brutal commutes can be considerable the average American commuter spends 42 hours per year stuck in rush-hour traffic. In the Los Angeles area, the figure is nearly twice that, equivalent to more than three days. A 2015 Los Angeles Times poll found that among residents of that city, traffic concerns exceed those pertaining to personal safety, finances or housing costs.
A recent analysis of Los Angeles traffic, published in the Journal of Public Economics, documented a link between congestion and domestic violence. From 2011 to 2015, the study found, extreme evening traffic on two major highways — I-5 and I-10 — increased the incidence of nighttime domestic violence by about 9 percent.
2018/12/06: even if the current administration isn’t interested in the electric vehicles, California, China, and European nations surely are. China has followed the Golden State’s lead in pushing hard for electric vehicles. Air quality in China is an important political issue.
Because of the Chinese and European commitments to electric vehicles, the global market for EVs doesn’t appear to be facing extinction. But despite Tesla’s popularity, EV sales are not what they need to be domestically to make them major market winners.
2018/11/15: There was little question in the reporting on autonomous vehicles that they were safer than human drivers, despite the complete lack of evidence. The tech visionaries had spoken, and as is too often the case, the media fell in line.
However, around the turn of the new year, criticism of the previous optimism was emerging. In January, I was among those pointing to the delayed timelines, growing number of collisions, and the slowing progress in reducing the number of times that human test drivers had to take over from the computers. As the year has played out, critics have been proven right, and a much more inspiring vision for the future of transportation has emerged.
However, even Waymo’s CEO, John Krafcik, now admits that the self-driving car that can drive in any condition, on any road, without ever needing a human to take control — what’s usually called a “level 5” autonomous vehicle — will never exist. At the Wall Street Journal’s D.Live conference on November 13, Krafcik said that “autonomy will always have constraints.” It will take decades for self-driving cars to become common on roads, and even then they will not be able to drive in certain conditions, at certain times of the year, or in any weather. In short, sensors on autonomous vehicles don’t work well in snow or rain — and that may never change.
It’s still surprising to hear such a statement by someone leading a self-driving vehicle company, but given what has happened throughout 2017, it shouldn’t be.
In urban planning, there’s a concept called induced demand which says that when the supply of a good increases, so will its demand. This is typically applied to roads and explains why even when highways are widened, congestion rarely improves: the additional lanes simply attract more drivers. However, the same is happening with micromobility. As dockless bikes and scooters are added to cities, they’re creating demand that didn’t previously exist. New cyclists and scooter users then create pressure for better parking and bike lanes, which results in a positive feedback loop by attracting more users, who create more pressure for infrastructure, and on and on.
The self-driving car was a reflection of the future imagined by car-loving boomers, but micromobility is the future that millennials want — and the one that has the best chance of succeeding.
2018/10/24: Uber and Lyft are not just increasing congestion and hurting transit, they are literally killing us.
A new study [PDF] from the Booth School at the University of Chicago estimates Uber and Lyft have increased traffic deaths by 2-3 percent nationally. That’s as many as 1,100 additional deaths a year — a small, but significant contribution to the increase in traffic deaths in the U.S. since 2011, the authors say.
Uber and Lyft have tried to market themselves as green companies that can help solve urban transportation problems, but the evidence keeps piling up that they are making many problems worse.
This new study backs up previous findings that Uber and Lyft have cannibalized transit trips and increased driving. The study found that cities with high adoption of Uber and Lyft had 3 percent more total miles driven daily on average than cities with low adoption. The effect was even bigger in larger cities and cities that had high rates of transit ridership. And more miles mean more deaths.
Even drunk driving deaths were essentially unchanged by the presence of Uber and Lyft, Barrios and his team found.
On total car ownership, more bad news. Cities with high Uber and Lyft activity actually had 3 percent higher new vehicle registrations (see this for New York City’s experience). Uber and Lyft might discourage car ownership among some higher-income riders, but app-based taxis seem to induce more car buying among lower-income people that work as drivers, Barrios found.
As Streetsblog reported, Uber and Lyft increase congestion partly because drivers spend 40 to 60 percent of their time circling without passengers, also known as “deadheading.” Barrios and his team said, Uber and Lyft’s policies make the problem worse.
2018/10/09: From 1990 to 2015, the average cost of traveling a mile by automobile in current cents increased by 166%, from 15.7 cents to 41.8 cents. During the same period, the average cost of traveling a mile in inflation-adjusted (constant 1990) cents increased by 47%, from 15.7 cents to 23.1 cents.
2018/09/06: as outlined above:
the number of models of electric vehicles available for sale is about to increase enormously
the purchase price of electric vehicles is falling significantly
the range of electric vehicles about to match or even surpass ICE vehicles
EVs have essentially zero maintenance issues apart from the need to replace brakes and tyres (and with regenerative braking, brake pad wear is minimal)
the batteries in EVs last hundreds of thousands of miles/kilometers with absolutely minimal degradation;
and EVs are cheaper to fuel
So why would anyone consider buying a car with an Internal Combustion Engine? Most people won't. And consequently, the resale value of ICE vehicles will collapse.
2018/09/25: why did not a single German automaker with all of its engineering capacity and billions of annual profits bring a single car on the road that can compete with a Model X, S, or 3 from Tesla?
People told me, “This is because they don’t want to do so, as the profits are made with their ICE cars, and with every EV, they lose money.” I understand this and believe that strategy makes a lot of sense. However, it creates a new question.
If this is the smart hidden strategy from the CEO of, for instance, BMW to maximize profits, how could he then allow Tesla to outsell BMW in the luxury premium segment? How could he allow them to sell more Model 3s than all of BMW’s passenger cars in the US combined? The same question is relevant for the CEO of Daimler, Audi, or Porsche.
It does not matter if VW does produce more cars, or if BMW has the i3 and i8 on sale and the iNext as a concept that is supposed to have a range above 400 miles in 2021. It does not matter if the e-Golf is selling well in Norway and Audi will start delivering the e-tron this year, or that the charging speed of the Taycan and e-tron is supposed to be faster than a Tesla Supercharger.
The only factor that matters is if the consumers do pay for a German EV or an EV from another brand like Tesla.
2018/09/23: La perdita di 1,7 milioni della passata edizione e l'atteggiamento delle case automobilistiche che tendono ormai a disertare in massa i saloni - anche se dalle prime indiscrezioni sembrava che invece a Bologna ci fossero diverse marche - ha portato allo stop.
2018/09/18: They stopped cars crossing the city and got rid of street parking, as people looking for a place to park is what causes the most congestion. They closed all surface car parks in the city centre and opened underground ones and others on the periphery, with 1,686 free places. They got rid of traffic lights in favour of roundabouts, extended the car-free zone from the old city to the 18th-century area, and used traffic calming in the outer zones to bring the speed limit down to 30km/h.
The benefits are numerous. On the same streets where 30 people died in traffic accidents from 1996 to 2006, only three died in the subsequent 10 years, and none since 2009. CO2 emissions are down 70%, nearly three-quarters of what were car journeys are now made on foot or by bicycle, and, while other towns in the region are shrinking, central Pontevedra has gained 12,000 new inhabitants. Also, withholding planning permission for big shopping centres has meant that small businesses – which elsewhere have been unable to withstand Spain’s prolonged economic crisis – have managed to stay afloat.
2018-07-29: In the 1930s, New York building commissioner Robert Moses built one highway and bridge after another, with the aim of relieving congestion in America's biggest city. But each time, the result was the same: worse traffic.
Today, Uber and Lyft are making traffic in major cities even worse because people tend to take them instead of walking, biking or taking mass transit, say multiple studies. Net effect is 5.7 *billion* additional miles of driving in 9 major U.S. cities
the main issue was not the technology change: it was the decline in transit service
At the turn of the 20th century, when transit companies' only competition were the legs of a person or a horse, they worked reasonably well, even if they faced challenges. Once cars arrived, nearly every U.S. transit agency slashed service to cut costs, instead of improving service to stay competitive. This drove even more riders away, producing a vicious cycle that led to the point where today, few Americans with a viable alternative ride buses or trains.
Now, when the federal government steps in to provide funding, it is limited to big capital projects. (Under the Trump administration, even those funds are in question.) Operations -- the actual running of buses and trains frequently enough to appeal to people with an alternative -- are perpetually starved for cash. Even transit advocates have internalized the idea that transit cannot be successful outside the highest-density urban centers. And it very rarely is.
an independent data journalism series that aimed to dive deeper into data about Metro Vancouver's transportation system.
Car dependence not only reduces our quality of life, it's a crucial factor in America's economic and political divisions.
If car manufacturers are right about the prospects for electric vehicle sales, an oil price crash won't be far behind.
Ride-hailing apps and robot cars promise to change how we get around and the effects are already being felt.
That's why more and more towns are deciding to wrest control of their streets from the tyranny of the automobile.
At least when it comes to moving people around the suburbs.
Guidare la macchina non 232 più rito di passaggio: i ragazzi preferiscono spostarsi in bicicletta e 171viaggiano187 grazie alla Rete