2018/09/30: growth is slow, but ruin is rapid.
The basic ideas in the behavior of complex systems are always the same, especially when dealing with collapses: complex systems are complex because they are dominated by the mechanism we call "feedback." Because of feedback effects, a large structure may collapse when just one of the elements that compose them fails. That may lead to the failure of the elements that surround it. These, in turn, cause the failure of other elements of the system, and so it goes. The result is what we call an "avalanche" and, as Seneca said, "ruin is rapid".
Modeling s not a question of predicting the future, it is a question of understanding it.
I am writing another book that should be called "The Seneca Strategy" -- it should be published by Springer in 2019. This second book is more a "collapse manual" that can be used to manage collapses: that is, it explains how to avoid being destroyed by collapses, how to minimize damage, and even how to profit from collapses (hint: have your enemies collapse first!). What I said in my first book remains valid: collapse is not a bug, it is a feature of the universe!
Druid perspectives on nature, culture, and the future of industrial society
The 1040 has been the primary American tax form since the introduction of the personal income tax in 1913. That's even been the form's name since the very beginning. But what started as a simple document with 27 lines of information to fill out has grown ever more complex: the current 1040 has 77 line items-plus a 189-page appendix of instructions. The image above is an animation of the first page of every 1040 from 1913 to 2011.