mfioretti: brexit*

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  1. Seconda domanda: Cambridge Analytica segnala come propri casi di successo il ruolo consulenziale avuto per la Brexit e le presidenziali USA del 2016. Questo vuol dire che la propaganda computazionale data-based ha successo prevalentemente con i movimenti populisti? Qui entriamo nella fantapolitica, ma è possibile provare a ragionare sulla questione. Se fosse vero che il populismo è più sensibile ad una comunicazione semplice e mirata, vorrebbe dire che la mente di chi vota conservatore sia diversa dalla mente di chi vota liberale. Chi ha sollevato la questione è il linguista George Lakoff che nel suo libro “Moral Politics” ha ipotizzato che i conservatori hanno un modello familiare rigoroso, in cui i valori sono fondati su autodisciplina e lavoro duro, mentre i liberali hanno un modello familiare partecipativo, in cui i valori sono basati sul prendersi cura gli uni con gli altri.
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  2. Major, who helped build the groundwork for peace in Northern Ireland, also hit out at recent calls to ignore the dangers of restoring border control. “We need a policy to protect the Good Friday agreement – and we need one urgently,” he said. “And it is our responsibility to find one – not the European Union.”

    The former prime minister withheld his strongest criticism for Brexit ultras taking the Tory party away from its pro-business roots.

    “Over many years, the Conservative party has understood the concerns of business. Not over Brexit, it seems,” he says. “This is not only grand folly. It’s also bad politics.

    “Our self-imposed ‘red lines’ have boxed the government into a corner,” he added. “They are so tilted to ultra Brexit opinion, even the cabinet cannot agree them – and a majority in both houses of parliament oppose them. If maintained in full, it will be impossible to reach a favourable trade outcome.”

    Warning that 125,000 jobs with Japanese companies could be lost in the UK, he said “none of it has yet been properly explained to the British people”.

    “No one voted for higher prices and poorer public services, but that is what they may get,” said Major. “The emerging evidence suggests Brexit will hurt most those who have least ... This isn’t ‘Project Fear’ revisited, it is ‘Project Know Your History’.”
    Tags: , by M. Fioretti (2018-03-01)
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  3. Brexiteers have ostensibly got what they want: Brexit. They assumed we could dictate the terms; we can’t. They assumed we could just walk away; we can’t. They had no more plans for leaving than a dog chasing a car has to drive it. They are now finding out how little sovereignty means for a country the size of Britain in a neoliberal globalised economy beyond blue passports (which we could have had anyway). What we need isn’t a change of leader but a change of direction.

    May is no more personally to blame for the mess we are in with Europe than Anthony Eden was for the mess with the 1956 Suez crisis – which provides a more salient parallel for Britain than the second world war. It took Britain and France overplaying their hand, in punishing Egypt for seizing the Suez canal from colonial control and nationalising it, to realise their imperial influence had been eclipsed by the US and was now in decline.

    “France and England will never be powers comparable to the United States,” the West German chancellor at the time, Konrad Adenauer, told the French foreign minister. “Not Germany either. There remains to them only one way of playing a decisive role in the world: that is to unite Europe … We have no time to waste; Europe will be your revenge.”

    Once again, Britain has overplayed its hand. Preferring to live in the past rather than learn from it, we find ourselves diminished in the present and clueless about the future.
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  4. There are an extra 14,000 unsold apartments on the market for between £1,000-£1,500 per sq ft. The average price per sq ft across the UK is £211.

    Molior says it would take at least three years to sell the glut of ultra-luxury flats if sales continue at their current rate and if no further new-builds are started.

    However, ambitious property developers have a further 420 residential towers (each at least 20 storeys high) in the pipeline, says New London Architecture and GL Hearn.

    Henry Pryor, a property buying agent, says the London luxury new-build market is “already overstuffed but we’re just building more of them”.
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    “We’re going to have loads of empty and part-built posh ghost towers,” he says. “They were built as gambling chips for rich overseas investors, but they are no longer interested in the London casino and have moved on.”
    Tags: , , , , by M. Fioretti (2018-01-27)
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  5. When in times past we have isolated ourselves from the Continent in the name of 'empire' or 'sovereignty,' we were soon sucked back in. This will inevitably happen again, given our power, trade, democratic values and sheer geography.
    Tags: , , , , by M. Fioretti (2017-12-31)
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  6. Is Brexit progressing on schedule as planned?
    Justin Pentecost
    Justin Pentecost, works at Freelance Focus Puller
    Answered Dec 20

    100% Brexit could be sorted out in 1/2 an hour, because it’s simply a case of the British ministers turning up in Brussels and writing down what they are told the deal will be.

    The EU knows what the deal will be, the deal is that the UK joins the EEA with an extra bit on top for the VAT zone. It took a quick consultation with the experts for them to realise that there was no other possible outcome.

    The UK has foresworn experts, so they have to go on “The Journey”. Some people just need “The Journey”.

    I was working on a commercial, and it was a very complicated mix of live action and stop motion animation. Someone was insisting that we shoot it on a neutered Zeiss Macro lens. The producer told me that he knew as well as i did that this would not work but we had to go on the “Journey”, otherwise this person will not accept that it will not work.

    Right from the very start, from way before the referendum it was 100% understood by the experts that the need to keep the Irish border 100% open to honour the Good Friday Agreement meant that the only possible Brexit deal was an EEA+ VAT zone Deal. However for whatever reason the UK decided that Experts were overrated and that the Irish Border issue was a side issue, that could be “Fudged” at a later date.

    The EU understood from an early date that they would have to take the UK on the “Journey”, On the first day of talks they could have said “EEA + VAT zone €10Billion per annum, we can talk about some committee or something where British interests are considered in new EU legislation, we have 2 years to work that one out ..”

    The EU is going on our journey with us .. right at the beginning, they let us talk about the “Divorce bill” first, it makes no odds as regardless of what is agreed they can write their own cheque later anyway. Then they talk about EU citizens rights, which again means nothing as free movement will continue under the EEA deal anyway. Then they hit the difficult one, which should have been first, but as we are going on “The Journey”. They get an agreement that they border will remain open as the Irish are demanding, and all sorts of weird terms such as “Regulatory alignment” and people making suggestions that the UK could use the Customs Union “Alignment” to trade with the EU’s overseas partners.

    The next stage can talk about all sorts of ways that the UK could be in the single market via some parallel market type nonsense, with free movement for Bankers and a single market for car parts .. Then suddenly the Irish border comes up again .. the journey continues ..

    Then just before it looks like we will drop out of the EU with no deal (which is an impossibility) the British Government will agree to the EU’s terms just as the experts said they would before the referendum.

    There will then be a Parliament vote on the issue, with Gove, Redwood et all screaming “Stab in the back, we could have dropped out to WTO rules” and the deal will be passed, with a few breixteers voting against.

    The schedule is exactly as it always would be, it’s a journey of discovery, with Davis continually accusing the EU of not making concessions and then May at the last minute helicoptering in and giving the EU exactly what they wanted in the first place ..
    Tags: by M. Fioretti (2017-12-30)
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  7. This precipitous collapse in trust in our political class and the vital institutions it oversees has arisen at an infelicitous time. Coupled with a global financial crisis that no one predicted, and amid the disorienting clamor of social media, it has surfaced an uncomfortable epiphany: the gathering realization that those who purport to be in control are, in fact, just powerless bystanders like the rest of us, beholden to their own personal knot of ignorance and bias.

    We have come to know, in some visceral way, that the complexity of the modern world is so intractable that everyone — no matter their status in society — is more or less playing at being sober adults, when in reality we all exist in a state of permanent bewilderment. Like the inner child in the poet Ted Hughes’ famous letter to his son, each one of us has been exposed as “the wretchedly isolated undeveloped little being” we truly are.
    Tags: , , , , by M. Fioretti (2017-12-14)
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  8. The EU Council guidelines on transition and trade, published the same day, make clear that there is a binary choice and the UK cannot have Norway-style benefits with Canada-style freedoms. Britain needs to choose.

    And it is time for the Government to accept that the Canada deal does not fit our country. As Frances O’Grady, General Secretary of the Trade Union Congress, pointed out, it “does nowhere near enough to protect workers’ rights and public services”.

    A Canada-style deal would not protect jobs, living standards, environmental rights or protect the Good Friday Agreement.

    Only staying in the Customs Union and Single Market will secure all of the rights we have come to rely on. Labour was right to call for continued membership during the transition phase and put continued membership back on the negotiating table.

    MPs must now go further: vote to ensure the Government cannot force us out of the Single Market without Parliamentary approval, as well as backing the vote to make sure there is a meaningful vote in Parliament at the end of the Brexit process. The future of our country depends on it.
    Tags: , , by M. Fioretti (2017-12-13)
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  9. The joint divorce agreement hammered out in the intervening 528 days makes clear that little remains of the many red lines set out by Theresa May in her Lancaster House speech or party conference address of 2016.

    The first, and biggest, concession is buried in paragraph 49 of the 15-page report published early on Friday morning. Its implications will be anything but quiet in the weeks to come, for it undermines the prime minister’s previous insistence that Britain will be leaving the single market.

    It states clearly: “In the absence of agreed solutions, the United Kingdom will maintain full alignment with those rules of the internal market and the customs union.” In other words, the UK may not be a member of the single market, or have any direct ability to shape its rules in future, but it could yet have to play by them in perpetuity.

    Much will be made of the “in the absence of agreed solutions” caveat, yet what it means in practice is that the UK hopes to flesh out this pledge through a wider free trade agreement with the EU. If the other 27 members were reluctant to allow any wriggle room in the first phase of talks, they are even less likely to budge now that this principle is established as a back-stop.

    Then there is the UK’s promise to free itself from interference by the European court of justice. Where once this seemed the most implacable of red lines, signs of continued ECJ involvement are strewn throughout the divorce agreement.

    Most striking is the commitment to allow EU citizens living in UK to continue to rely on the court to enforce the many legal rights that will be enshrined as a result of the agreement.

    “For EU citizens the ECJ will still be competent,” said Jean-Claude Juncker, as he announced the deal.
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  10. The decision to enshrine exit day in the Withdrawal Bill confirms this profound strategic error. But in the end, the government will reverse its stance, or collapse. May and Davis may cause severe turbulence, but even they will work hard to ensure the planes still fly. Extension is the new frontline in the Brexit debate, and gathering momentum: the only means of ensuring a Brexit that does not burn down both our economy and Ireland’s. It is also the only way to stop this process altogether.

    So, as you read the stories of doom in the run-up to next month’s summit, stay calm. If the government does not sign a deal, it will not survive. And if push comes to shove, no deal likely means no Brexit.
    Tags: , , , , by M. Fioretti (2017-11-29)
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